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An Estimation of the Climatic Effects of Stratospheric Ozone Losses during the 1980sIn order to study the potential climatic effects of the ozone hole more directly and to assess the validity of previous lower resolution model results, the latest high spatial resolution version of the Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., seasonal radiative dynamical climate model is used to simulate the climatic effects of ozone changes relative to the other greenhouse gases. The steady-state climatic effect of a sustained decrease in lower stratospheric ozone, similar in magnitude to the observed 1979-90 decrease, is estimated by comparing three steady-state climate simulations: 1) 1979 greenhouse gas concentrations and 1979 ozone, II) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1979 ozone, and III) 1990 greenhouse gas concentrations with 1990 ozone. The simulated increase in surface air temperature resulting from nonozone greenhouse gases is 0.272 K. When changes in lower stratospheric ozone are included, the greenhouse warming is 0.165 K, which is approximately 39% lower than when ozone is fixed at the 1979 concentrations. Ozone perturbations at high latitudes result in a cooling of the surface-troposphere system that is greater (by a factor of 2.8) than that estimated from the change in radiative forcing resulting from ozone depiction and the model's 2 x CO, climate sensitivity. The results suggest that changes in meridional heat transport from low to high latitudes combined with the decrease in the infrared opacity of the lower stratosphere are very important in determining the steady-state response to high latitude ozone losses. The 39% compensation in greenhouse warming resulting from lower stratospheric ozone losses is also larger than the 28% compensation simulated previously by the lower resolution model. The higher resolution model is able to resolve the high latitude features of the assumed ozone perturbation, which are important in determining the overall climate sensitivity to these perturbations.
Document ID
20000011670
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
MacKay, Robert M. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Cambridge, MA United States)
Ko, Malcolm K. W. (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Cambridge, MA United States)
Shia, Run-Lie (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Cambridge, MA United States)
Yang, Yajaing (Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc. Cambridge, MA United States)
Zhou, Shuntai (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Washington, DC United States)
Molnar, Gyula (NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Date Acquired
August 19, 2013
Publication Date
April 1, 1997
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Climate
Volume: 10
Issue: 4
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: DE-FG02-86ER-60485
CONTRACT_GRANT: NASW-4775
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other