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A New Ensemble Canonical Correlation Prediction Scheme for Seasonal PrecipitationDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada This paper describes the fundamental theory of the ensemble canonical correlation (ECC) algorithm for the seasonal climate forecasting. The algorithm is a statistical regression sch eme based on maximal correlation between the predictor and predictand. The prediction error is estimated by a spectral method using the basis of empirical orthogonal functions. The ECC algorithm treats the predictors and predictands as continuous fields and is an improvement from the traditional canonical correlation prediction. The improvements include the use of area-factor, estimation of prediction error, and the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The ECC is applied to the seasonal forecasting over various parts of the world. The example presented here is for the North America precipitation. The predictor is the sea surface temperature (SST) from different ocean basins. The Climate Prediction Center's reconstructed SST (1951-1999) is used as the predictor's historical data. The optimally interpolated global monthly precipitation is used as the predictand?s historical data. Our forecast experiments show that the ECC algorithm renders very high skill and the optimal ensemble is very important to the high value.
Document ID
20020016972
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Kim, Kyu-Myong
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Lau, William K. M.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Li, Guilong
(Alberta Univ. Edmonton, Alberta Canada)
Shen, Samuel S. P.
(Alberta Univ. Edmonton, Alberta Canada)
Lau, William K. M.
Date Acquired
August 20, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2001
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Meeting Information
Meeting: 26th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop
Location: La Jolla, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: October 22, 2001
End Date: October 26, 2001
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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