Detectability of the Reflection Signal from Inner Planets

Mayor and Queloz (1996) and Marcy and Butler (1996) have found massive planets with orbital periods Tp=approx.4 days around two solar-like stars (51 Pegasi and v Andromeda). These planets are most likely similar in size and composition to the gas giants in our solar system (Burrows et al 1996). Based on this expectation and assuming the same albedo as Jupiter, we examined the feasibility of searching for similar planets with a dedicated space-based 1-m telescope. The Kepler mission will survey approximately 70,000 main-sequence dwarf stars from 9 to 14 mag continuously for four years to detect transiting Earthlike planets. Based on the detection statistics of Marcy and Butler, we expect to detect 1400 inner-orbit giant planets. Such planets in a much wider range of orbital inclinations (i) will produce nearly sinusoidal modulations of the star light flux due to the varying planetary phases. The relative signal amplitudes are of order 2x10(exp -5) and decrease as Tp(exp 4/3) for i >> 0deg. We estimated the expected signal to noise ratio (SNR) using the solar irradiance measurements from the ACRIM 1 experiment along with expected shot and detector noises. The figure shows SNR as a function of Tp for a 12 mag star, and indicates the planet radius required for detection. The survey will be sensitive to planets with periods from 12 hr to approx.8 days at the 6 sigma level.