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Forecasting Coronal Mass Ejections from Vector MagnetogramsIn a 17 vector magnetogram study of 12 bipolar active regions (Falconer, Moore, & Gary, 2002, ApJ in press), we correlated four quantitative global magnetic measures with the Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) productivity of the active region. The global measures included a measure of active region size, the total magnetic flux phi and three measures of an active region global nonpotentiality 1) the net current (I (sub N)), 2) the length of the strong-shear, strong-field main neutral line (L(sub SS)) and 3) and the normalized twist (alpha = muIN/PHI). The CME productivity was determined from YOHKOH/SXT observations, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES), and when possible Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (SOHO/LASCO) observations within 12 days of the day of the magnetogram. We found that the three measures of global nonpotentiality (I(sub N), L(sub SS), alpha) were all well correlated (greater than 99% confidence level) with an active region's CME productivity. The sample size was to small to confirm if there was a statistical significant correlation of the globally nonscientist measures with future CME activity (i.e. from the date of the magnetogram forward). We are doubling our sample, and will report on the statistical significance of global nonpotentiality as a predictor of future CME productivity. The new active regions are all from the first year of the upgraded MSFC vector magnetograms. This work, is funded by NSF through the Space Weather Program, by NASA through the Living with the Star, Targeted Research and Technology, and by NASA Solar Physics Supporting Research and Technology Program. The upgrade to the MSFC vector magnetograph was supported by the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) mission.
Document ID
20020067576
Acquisition Source
Marshall Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Falconer, D. A.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL United States)
Moore, R. L.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL United States)
Gary, G. A.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL United States)
Six, N. Frank
Date Acquired
August 20, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2002
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Meeting Information
Meeting: 200th Meeting of the American Astronomical Society
Location: Albuquerque, NM
Country: United States
Start Date: June 2, 2002
End Date: June 6, 2002
Sponsors: American Astronomical Society
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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