Time-Variable Gravity Signal due to Extratropic Pacific Water Mass Redistribution

Using the satellite-laser-ranging (SLR) data, Cox and Chao [2002] reported the detection of a large post-1998 anomaly (in the form of a positive jump) in the time series of Earth s lowest-degree gravity harmonic 52, or the dynamic oblateness. Among several groups now examining the mass redistribution in the global geophysical fluids in search of the cause(s), we report here a temporally coinciding anomalies found in the extratropic north + south Pacific basins. Clearly seen in the leading EOFPC mode for extratropic Pacific, these anomalies occurred in sea-surface height, sea-surface temperature, and temperature- and salinity-depth profiles. We based our analysis on two different data sources: TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry, and the ECCO ocean general circulation model output assimilating T/P data. The magnitude of these changes, when converted to equivalent J2 change, appears to be a few times too small to explain the observed J2 directly. These findings, and the fact that the anomalies occurred following the strong 1997-98 El Nino, suggest strong geophysical connection of the interannual-to-decadal variation of 52 with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the ultimate global-change processes that cause PDO. More work is underway, and additional independent data sources are examined, paying close attention to the fact that the J2 anomaly has been reversing back to normal since 2001. These include: (1) cryospheric contributions (melting of glaciers and ice sheets); (2) land hydrological contributions; (3) polar sea influences ( e g , via deep flow); (4) fluid flow in Earth's core; (5) time-variable gravity signals from SLR in higher harmonic degree/order, including J3,J4, (2,1), and (2,2) coefficients, considering their lower signal-to-noise ratios; (6) Earth rotation data in terms of length-of-day and polar motion.