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Record 1 of 8699
Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting
Author and Affiliation:
Cooke, William J.(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States)
Suggs, Robert M.(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States)
Abstract: Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.
Publication Date: Aug 01, 2003
Document ID:
(Acquired Nov 05, 2003)
Document Type: Preprint
Meeting Information: 2003 Leonid MAC Conference; 27-30 Aug. 2003; Moffett Field, CA; United States
Financial Sponsor: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; Huntsville, AL, United States
Organization Source: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; Huntsville, AL, United States
Description: 1p; In English
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: No Copyright
Availability Source: Other Sources
Availability Notes: Abstract Only
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