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Polar Processes in a 50-year Simulation of Stratospheric Chemistry and TransportThe unique chemical, dynamical, and microphysical processes that occur in the winter polar lower stratosphere are expected to interact strongly with changing climate and trace gas abundances. Significant changes in ozone have been observed and prediction of future ozone and climate interactions depends on modeling these processes successfully. We have conducted an off-line model simulation of the stratosphere for trace gas conditions representative of 1975-2025 using meteorology from the NASA finite-volume general circulation model. The objective of this simulation is to examine the sensitivity of stratospheric ozone and chemical change to varying meteorology and trace gas inputs. This presentation will examine the dependence of ozone and related processes in polar regions on the climatological and trace gas changes in the model. The model past performance is base-lined against available observations, and a future ozone recovery scenario is forecast. Overall the model ozone simulation is quite realistic, but initial analysis of the detailed evolution of some observable processes suggests systematic shortcomings in our description of the polar chemical rates and/or mechanisms. Model sensitivities, strengths, and weaknesses will be discussed with implications for uncertainty and confidence in coupled climate chemistry predictions.
Document ID
20040082207
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Kawa, S.R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Douglass, A. R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Patrick, L. C.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Allen, D. R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Randall, C. E.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 21, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2004
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Meeting Information
Meeting: SPARC 3rd General Assembly
Location: Victoria, British Columbia
Country: Canada
Start Date: August 1, 2004
End Date: August 6, 2004
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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