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The Net Carbon Flux due to Deforestation and Forest Re-Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Analysis using a Process-Based ModelWe developed a process-based model of forest growth, carbon cycling, and land cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (non-flooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study of the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging, and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re-growth over the period from 1970-1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of approx. 0.35 PgC/yr (1PgC = 1 x 10(exp I5) gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of approx. 7 PgC from 1970- 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989-1 998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared to the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by approx. 1 PgC from 1970-1998, while different assumptions about land cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte-Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).
Document ID
20040161150
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Hirsch, A. I.
Little, W. S.
Houghton, R. A. (Woods Hole Research Center MA, United States)
Scott, N. A.
White, J. D.
Date Acquired
August 22, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2004
Publication Information
Publication: Global Change Biology
Volume: 10
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NAG5-9880
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.