The Role of Theory and Modeling in the International Living with a Star Program

Today, theory and modeling play a critical role in our quest to understand the connection between solar eruptive phenomena, and their impacts in interplanetary space and in the near-Earth space environment. This new role is based on two developments, one related to the goal of basic physical understanding, and the other to space weather-related applications. When targeting physical our focus is shifting away from investigations aiming at basic discoveries, to missions and studies that address our basic understanding of processes we know to be important. For these studies, theory and models provide physical explanations that need to be verified or falsified by empirical evidence. Within this paradigm, a much more tight integration between theory modeling, and space flight mission design and execution is not only beneficial, but essential. One of the prime objectives of space weather research, on the other hand, is the prediction of space environmental conditions for the benefit of humans and their assets in near-Earth space and on the ground, as well as on solar system bodies like Mars that are of interest to exploration by humans. By its very nature, prediction requires modeling, which, in turn, requires understanding. We will present an overview of the role of theory and modeling within the International Living With a Star program. Specifically, we will focus on an assessment of present-day and future capabilities, as well as on strategies for tight integration of theory and modeling in space science investigations.