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Detecting the Recovery of the Antarctic Ozone HoleThe Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. We will show estimates of both when the ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery, and when the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels.
Document ID
Document Type
Conference Paper
Newman, Paul A.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nash, Eric R.
(Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Landover, MD, United States)
Kawa, S. Randolph
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Montzka, Steve
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administraion)
Date Acquired
August 22, 2013
Publication Date
December 1, 2004
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Meeting Information
2004 Fall American Geophysical Union Meeting(San Francisco, CA)
Distribution Limits
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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