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Trends from the Long-term Data Record and Models: What Do They Tell Us About our Ability to Predict Ozone Recovery?Our industrial society has performed an experiment on the stratospheric ozone layer over the last several decades. The initial part of this experiment was the rapidly increasing release of halogen-containing compounds that carry chlorine and bromine to the stratosphere where they can cause a loss of ozone. The present part of this experiment is the implementation of the Montreal Protocol, which has led to a leveling off of these halogen compounds and the beginning of their slow removal from the atmosphere. The observation and attribution of ozone response to the halogens has been a particularly important and difficult task because of the impact of solar cycle uv variation, two major volcanic eruptions (El Chichon and Pinatubo), and interannual dynamic variability of the stratosphere. We have run 3 different simulations of the chemistry and transport of ozone and the minor constituents that affect ozone to help evaluate our understanding of the causes of ozone change and to assess our ability to predict ozone recovery with the removal of halogens from the stratosphere. One simulation, using the Goddard chemical transport model (CTM), had interannual variability in the dynamics for the entire 50 years of simulation, which included the past 3 decades (1974-2004) and the next 2 decades to 2022. The other two simulations used the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) CTM with no dynamical variability: one used a the winds and temperatures from a repeating warm Arctic winter and the other used a repeating cold Arctic winter. All simulations included the effects of aerosol surfaces from volcanic eruptions on chemical reactions as well as the variation in UV over the 11-year solar cycle.
Document ID
20050156967
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Strahan, Susan
Stolarski, Richard
Douglass, Anne
Steenrod, Stephen
Date Acquired
August 23, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2005
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Meeting Information
Meeting: Spring 2005 AGU Meeting
Location: New Orleans, LA
Country: United States
Start Date: May 23, 2005
End Date: May 27, 2005
Sponsors: American Geophysical Union
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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