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Record Details

Record 4 of 12423
The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting
Author and Affiliation:
Hathaway, David H.(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States)
Wilson, Robert M.(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States)
Abstract: Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.
Publication Date: Jan 01, 2006
Document ID:
20060015720
(Acquired Jun 08, 2006)
Subject Category: SPACE SCIENCES (GENERAL)
Document Type: Conference Paper
Meeting Information: Space Weather Week: The Meeting of Science, Research, Applications, Operation, and Users; 25-28 Apr. 2006; Boulder, CO; United States
Meeting Sponsor: Commerce Dept.; Washington, DC, United States
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Boulder, CO, United States
Financial Sponsor: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; Huntsville, AL, United States
Organization Source: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; Huntsville, AL, United States
Description: 1p; In English
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: No Copyright
NASA Terms: ACTIVITY CYCLES (BIOLOGY); LONG RANGE WEATHER FORECASTING; SOLAR ACTIVITY; SPACE WEATHER; PREDICTIONS; DYNAMO THEORY; MAGNETIC FIELDS; SUNSPOT CYCLE; SUN; TRENDS
Availability Source: Other Sources
Availability Notes: Abstract Only
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