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In-situ resource utilization for the human exploration of Mars : a Bayesian approach to valuation of precursor missionsThe need for sufficient quantities of oxygen, water, and fuel resources to support a crew on the surface of Mars presents a critical logistical issue of whether to transport such resources from Earth or manufacture them on Mars. An approach based on the classical Wildcat Drilling Problem of Bayesian decision theory was applied to the problem of finding water in order to compute the expected value of precursor mission sample information. An implicit (required) probability of finding water on Mars was derived from the value of sample information using the expected mass savings of alternative precursor missions.
Document ID
20060044053
Document Type
Conference Paper
External Source(s)
Authors
Smith, Jeffrey H.
Date Acquired
August 23, 2013
Publication Date
April 11, 2006
Subject Category
Lunar and Planetary Science and Exploration
Meeting Information
Western Decision Sciences Institute 35th Annual Meeting(Waikoloa, HI)
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
water
resources
decision analysis
Mars