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When will the Antarctic Ozone Hole Recover?The Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early Spring. Antarctic ozone values have been monitored since 1979 using satellite observations from the .TOMS instrument. The severity of the hole has been assessed from TOMS using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole) and by calculating the average size during the September-October period. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations in the collar of the polar lower stratospheric vortex. In this presentation, we show the relationships of halogens and temperature to, both the size and depth of the hole. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Using projections of halogen levels combined with age-of-air estimates, we find that the ozone hole is recovering at an extremely slow rate and that large ozone holes will regularly recur over the next 2 decades. The ozone hole will begin to show first signs of recovery in about 2023, and the hole will fully recover to pre-1980 levels in approximately 2070. This 2070 recovery is 20 years later than recent projections.
Document ID
20070010484
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Newman, Paul A.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nash, Eric R.
(Science Systems and Applications, Inc. Landover, MD, United States)
Kawa, S. Randolph
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Montzka, Steve
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Date Acquired
August 23, 2013
Publication Date
January 1, 2006
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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