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high-resolution wrf forecasts of lightning threatTropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)lightning and precipitation observations have confirmed the existence of a robust relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Initial experiments using 6-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. The WRF has been initialized on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics is employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.
Document ID
Document Type
Conference Paper
Goodman, S. J.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
McCaul, E. W., Jr.
(Universities Space Research Association Huntsville, AL, United States)
LaCasse, K.
(Alabama Univ. Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
August 13, 2007
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Meeting Information
International Conferences on Atmospheric Electricity (ICAE)/International Commission on Atmospheric Electricity(Beijing)
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