Seasonal Trends in Stratospheric Water Vapor as Derived from SAGE II Data

Published analysis of HALOE and Boulder balloon measurements of water vapor have shown conflicting trends in stratospheric water vapor for the periods of 1981 through 2005. Analysis of the SAGE II monthly mean water vapor data filtered for large aerosol events for time periods from 1985-1991, 1995-1999, and 2000-2005 have shown a globally decreasing water vapor trend at 17.5km. Seasonal analysis for these three time periods show a decreasing trend in water vapor at 17.5km for the winter and spring seasons. The summer and autumn seasonal analysis show a decreasing trend from 1985-2005, however, there is a increasing trend in water vapor at 17.5km for these seasons during 1995-2005. Latitude vs height seasonal analysis show a decreasing trend in the lower stratosphere between 20S - 20N for the autumn season, while at the latitudes of 30-50S and 30-50N there is an increasing trend in water vapor at heights up to 15km for that season. Comparison with regions of monsoon activity (Asian and North American) show that the Asian monsoon region had some effect on the lower stratospheric moistening in 1995-1999, however, for the time period of 2000-2005, there was no change in the global trend analysis due to either monsoon region. This may be due to the limitations of the SAGE II data from 2000-2005.