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Prediction Model for Relativistic Electrons at Geostationary OrbitWe developed a new prediction model for forecasting relativistic (greater than 2MeV) electrons, which provides a VERY HIGH correlation between predicted and actually measured electron fluxes at geostationary orbit. This model implies the multi-step particle acceleration and is based on numerical integrating two linked continuity equations for primarily accelerated particles and relativistic electrons. The model includes a source and losses, and used solar wind data as only input parameters. We used the coupling function which is a best-fit combination of solar wind/interplanetary magnetic field parameters, responsible for the generation of geomagnetic activity, as a source. The loss function was derived from experimental data. We tested the model for four year period 2004-2007. The correlation coefficient between predicted and actual values of the electron fluxes for whole four year period as well as for each of these years is stable and incredibly high (about 0.9). The high and stable correlation between the computed and actual electron fluxes shows that the reliable forecasting these electrons at geostationary orbit is possible.
Document ID
20080031493
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Khazanov, George V. (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Lyatsky, Wladislaw (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
April 29, 2008
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Meeting Information
Space Weather Workshop(Colorado)
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.