Orbit Decay Prediction Sensitivity to Solar Flux Variations

It is well known that atmospheric density errors are the main source of uncertainty in orbit decay predictions. Perhaps less well known is the sensitivity of atmospheric density to solar activity. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of orbit decay predictions to realistic daily variations in solar flux. We present results from analysis of orbit decay prediction for a variety of orbits, initial epochs, and predicted smooth flux profiles. For each set of initial conditions, we simulate multiple sample flux profiles with simulated daily variations, and compute the orbital re-entry date for comparison.