The Weekend Effect for Precipitation Over Eastern U.S.: Evidence for Midweek Storm Intensification by Pollution

Every week the U.S. population carries out a climate-change experiment by varying their activities with the day of the week. It is well documented that pollution levels vary on a weekly basis. Particulate aerosol pollution is generally a maximum in the middle of the week and a minimum on weekends. It is also well known that aerosols can affect precipitation, although whether they suppress or enhance storm development depends on many factors. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite has provided evidence that rain statistics change with the day of the week over the southeast U.S. and neighboring waters during the summer months (JJA) of 1998-2005. There is a midweek increase in both rain area and intensity over land, and a midweek decrease over the nearby Atlantic and perhaps the Gulf of Mexico. Statistical tests suggest that the weekly variations are very unlikely to be due to the random behavior of weather. We will discuss the TRMM evidence. Wind data from model reanalysis, rain-gauge data, and TRMM radar data all appear to be consistent with the picture that aerosols are causing summertime storms to grow more vigorously and to produce more rainfall.