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Detection and Attribution of the Recovery of Polar OzoneThe Antarctic ozone hole develops each year and culminates by early spring (late September - early October). The severity of the hole has been assessed from satellites using the minimum total ozone value from the October monthly mean (depth of the hole), calculating the average area coverage during this September-October period, and by estimating ozone mass deficit. Profile information shows that ozone is completely destroyed in the 14-2 1 km layer by early October. Ozone is mainly destroyed by halogen (chlorine and bromine) catalytic cycles, and these losses are modulated by temperature variations. Because atmospheric halogen levels are responding to international agreements that limit or phase out production, the amount of halogens in the stratosphere should decrease over the next few decades. Both models and projections of ozone depleting substances (ODSs) into the 21St century reveal that polar ozone levels should recover in the 2060- 2070 period. In this talk, we will review current projections of polar ozone recovery. Using models and ODs projections, we explore both the past, near future (2008-2025), and far future (> 2025) levels of polar ozone. Finally, we will discuss various factors that complicate recovery such as greenhouse gas changes (e.g., cooling in the upper stratosphere) and the acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation.
Document ID
20080045790
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Newman, Paul A.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nash, E. R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Douglass, A. R.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Nielsen, J. E.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Pawson, S.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Stolarski, R. S.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
August 31, 2008
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Meeting Information
Meeting: SPARC 4th General Assembly
Location: Bologna
Country: Italy
Start Date: August 31, 2008
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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