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Use of Vertically Integrated Ice in WRF-Based Forecasts of Lightning ThreatPreviously reported methods of forecasting lightning threat using fields of graupel flux from WRF simulations are extended to include the simulated field of vertically integrated ice within storms. Although the ice integral shows less temporal variability than graupel flux, it provides more areal coverage, and can thus be used to create a lightning forecast that better matches the areal coverage of the lightning threat found in observations of flash extent density. A blended lightning forecast threat can be constructed that retains much of the desirable temporal sensitivity of the graupel flux method, while also incorporating the coverage benefits of the ice integral method. The graupel flux and ice integral fields contributing to the blended forecast are calibrated against observed lightning flash origin density data, based on Lightning Mapping Array observations from a series of case studies chosen to cover a wide range of flash rate conditions. Linear curve fits that pass through the origin are found to be statistically robust for the calibration procedures.
Document ID
20090014780
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
McCaul, E. W., jr.
(Universities Space Research Association Huntsville, AL, United States)
Goodman, S. J.
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Silver Spring, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
October 27, 2008
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
MSFC-2125
Meeting Information
2008 24th Conference on Severe Storms(Savannah, GA)
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
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