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Predicting the Sunspot CycleThe 11-year sunspot cycle was discovered by an amateur astronomer in 1844. Visual and photographic observations of sunspots have been made by both amateurs and professionals over the last 400 years. These observations provide key statistical information about the sunspot cycle that do allow for predictions of future activity. However, sunspots and the sunspot cycle are magnetic in nature. For the last 100 years these magnetic measurements have been acquired and used exclusively by professional astronomers to gain new information about the nature of the solar activity cycle. Recently, magnetic dynamo models have evolved to the stage where they can assimilate past data and provide predictions. With the advent of the Internet and open data policies, amateurs now have equal access to the same data used by professionals and equal opportunities to contribute (but, alas, without pay). This talk will describe some of the more useful prediction techniques and reveal what they say about the intensity of the upcoming sunspot cycle.
Document ID
20090017763
Acquisition Source
Marshall Space Flight Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Authors
Hathaway, David H.
(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center Huntsville, AL, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
January 6, 2009
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Report/Patent Number
M09-0258
Meeting Information
Meeting: European AstroFest 2009
Location: London
Country: United Kingdom
Start Date: January 6, 2009
End Date: January 7, 2009
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Work of the US Gov. Public Use Permitted.

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