Does Aerosol Weaken or Strengthen the South Asian Monsoon?

Aerosols are known to have the ability to block off solar radiation reaching the earth surface, causing it to cool - the so-called solar dimming (SDM) effect. In the Asian monsoon region, the SDM effect by aerosol can produce differential cooling at the surface reducing the meridional thermal contrast between land and ocean, leading to a weakening of the monsoon. On the other hand, absorbing aerosols such as black carbon and dust, when forced up against the steep slopes of the southern Tibetan Plateau can produce upper tropospheric heating, and induce convection-dynamic feedback leading to an advance of the rainy season over northern India and an enhancement of the South Asian monsoon through the "Elevated Heat Pump" (EHP) effect. In this paper, we present modeling results showing that in a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system in which concentrations of greenhouse gases are kept constant, the response of the South Asian monsoon to dust and black carbon forcing is the net result of the two opposing effects of SDM and EHP. For the South Asian monsoon, if the increasing upper tropospheric thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and region to the south spurred by the EHP overwhelms the reduction in surface temperature contrast due to SDM, the monsoon strengthens. Otherwise, the monsoon weakens. Preliminary observations are consistent with the above findings. We find that the two effects are strongly scale dependent. On interannual and shorter time scales, the EHP effect appears to dominate in the early summer season (May-June). On decadal or longer time scales, the SDM dominates for the mature monsoon (July-August). Better understanding the physical mechanisms underlying the SDM and the EHP effects, the local emission and transport of aerosols from surrounding deserts and arid-regions, and their interaction with monsoon water cycle dynamics are important in providing better prediction and assessment of climate change impacts on precipitation of the Asian monsoon land regions.