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Effects of Moist Convection on Hurricane PredictabilityThis study exemplifies inherent uncertainties in deterministic prediction of hurricane formation and intensity. Such uncertainties could ultimately limit the predictability of hurricanes at all time scales. In particular, this study highlights the predictability limit due to the effects on moist convection of initial-condition errors with amplitudes far smaller than those of any observation or analysis system. Not only can small and arguably unobservable differences in the initial conditions result in different routes to tropical cyclogenesis, but they can also determine whether or not a tropical disturbance will significantly develop. The details of how the initial vortex is built can depend on chaotic interactions of mesoscale features, such as cold pools from moist convection, whose timing and placement may significantly vary with minute initial differences. Inherent uncertainties in hurricane forecasts illustrate the need for developing advanced ensemble prediction systems to provide event-dependent probabilistic forecasts and risk assessment.
Document ID
20100017346
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Preprint (Draft being sent to journal)
Authors
Zhang, Fuqing
(Pennsylvania State Univ. University Park, PA, United States)
Sippel, Jason A.
(Texas A&M Univ. College Station, TX, United States)
Date Acquired
August 24, 2013
Publication Date
December 7, 2008
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: N000140410471
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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