Lightning Reporting at 45th Weather Squadron: Recent Improvements

The 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) provides daily lightning reports to space launch customers at CCAFS/KSC. These reports are provided to assess the need to inspect the electronics of satellite payloads, space launch vehicles, and ground support equipment for induced current damage from nearby lightning strokes. The 45 WS has made several improvements to the lightning reports during 2008-2009. The 4DLSS, implemented in April 2008, provides all lightning strokes as opposed to just one stroke per flash as done by the previous system. The 45 WS discovered that the peak current was being truncated to the nearest kilo amp in the database used to generate the daily lightning reports, which led to an up to 4% underestimate in the peak current for average lightning. This error was corrected and led to elimination of this underestimate. The 45 WS and their mission partners developed lightning location error ellipses for 99% and 95% location accuracies tailored to each individual stroke and began providing them in the spring of 2009. The new procedure provides the distance from the point of interest to the best location of the stroke (the center of the error ellipse) and the distance to the closest edge of the ellipse. This information is now included in the lightning reports, along with the peak current of the stroke. The initial method of calculating the error ellipses could only be used during normal duty hours, i.e. not during nights, weekends, or holidays. This method was improved later to provide lightning reports in near real-time, 24/7. The calculation of the distance to the closest point on the ellipse was also significantly improved later. Other improvements were also implemented. A new method to calculate the probability of any nearby lightning stroke. being within any radius of any point of interest was developed and is being implemented. This may supersede the use of location error ellipses. The 45 WS is pursuing adding data from nine NLDN sensors into 4DLSS in real-time. This will overcome the problem of 4DLSS missing some of the strong local strokes. This will also improve the location accuracy, reduce the size and eccentricity of the location error ellipses, and reduce the probability of nearby strokes being inside the areas of interest when few of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. This will not reduce 4DLSS performance when most of the 4DLSS sensors are used in the stroke solution. Finally, several possible future improvements were discussed, especially for improving the peak current estimate and the error estimate for peak current, and upgrading the 4DLSS. Some possible approaches for both of these goals were discussed.