The Effects of Speed Uncertainty on a Separation Assurance Algorithm

Trajectory prediction is central to separation assurance, because it is necessary to accurately predict where an aircraft will be in the future to avoid losses of separation. In any system in the field there will always be uncertainty associated with trajectory prediction. This uncertainty is a product of many different sources including wind prediction errors, pilot intent, surveillance errors, navigation errors and aircraft weight. The purpose of this study is to parametrically analyze the effects of aircraft speed errors on conflict detection and to analyze the performance of a conflict resolution algorithm when these speed errors are present. Results show that a speed error of +/- 10% of the cruise speed can result in about 30% of the conflicts not being detected ten minutes before the loss of separation. It can also result in 50% more resolutions being performed to maintain separation.