The Evolution of Remnant Ice at the Lunar South Pole from Diviner Surface Temperature Results

The Diviner lunar radiometer instrument aboard the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter mission has revealed large areas of lunar polar terrain with surface temperatures well below 100K. At these temperatures, the sublimation rate of water ice is well below 1 mm per billion years. In contrast, the loss rate at 120K is more than 1 meter of ice in that time consequently volatiles delivered to the coldest locations can be trapped for over 1 Ga, but will be quickly lost from warmer locales. Here we investigate the loss or retention of a layer of ice-bearing regolith at the lunar south poe, assuming contemporary surface temperature conditions and no other loss processes. We use an analytic solution for the one-dimensional diffusion equation of water ice, assuming an isothermal regolith with pore space comparable to mean grain size, 75 micrometers. Only the top meter of soil is assumed to be ice-bearing. We can then calculate the history of ice content with time based on local temperature, and predict what the epithermal neutron output would be in the presence of such a concentration of hydrogen. We compare the present, observed distribution of hydrogen with what one would expect from the temperature-dependent loss or retention of ice for various times since emplacement.