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NASA's Human Mission to a Near-Earth Asteroid: Landing on a Moving TargetThis paper describes a Bayesian approach for comparing the productivity and cost-risk tradeoffs of sending versus not sending one or more robotic surveyor missions prior to a human mission to land on an asteroid. The expected value of sample information based on productivity combined with parametric variations in the prior probability an asteroid might be found suitable for landing were used to assess the optimal number of spacecraft and asteroids to survey. The analysis supports the value of surveyor missions to asteroids and indicates one launch with two spacecraft going simultaneously to two independent asteroids appears optimal.
Document ID
20110015590
Document Type
Conference Paper
External Source(s)
Authors
Smith, Jeffrey H. (Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech. Pasadena, CA, United States)
Lincoln, William P. (Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech. Pasadena, CA, United States)
Weisbin, Charles R. (Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech. Pasadena, CA, United States)
Date Acquired
August 25, 2013
Publication Date
April 5, 2011
Subject Category
Space Sciences (General)
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
precursor decision making
expected value of sample information (EVSI)
Near Earth Asteriod
Bayesian approach