NASA Logo, External Link
Facebook icon, External Link to NASA STI page on Facebook Twitter icon, External Link to NASA STI on Twitter YouTube icon, External Link to NASA STI Channel on YouTube RSS icon, External Link to New NASA STI RSS Feed AddThis share icon

Record Details

Record 1 of 54618
Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon
External Online Source: doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02225.x
Author and Affiliation:
Hague, M. J.(Simon Fraser Univ., Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada)
Ferrari, M. R.(Weather Trends International, Bethlehem, PA)
Miller, J. R.(Rutgers - The State Univ., Dept. of Marine and Coastal Sciences, New Brunswick, NJ, United States)
Patterson, D. A.(Simon Fraser Univ., Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Science Branch, Pacific Region, School of Resource and Environmental Management, Burnaby, British Columbia, Canada)
Russell, G. L.(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States)
Farrell, A.P.(British Columbia Univ., Dept. of Zoology, Faculty of Land and Food Systems, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada)
Hinch, S. G.(British Columbia Univ., Dept. of Forest Sciences, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability,, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada)
Abstract: Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.
Publication Date: Feb 16, 2010
Document ID:
(Acquired Sep 20, 2012)
Report/Patent Number: GSFC.JA.6502.2012
Document Type: Journal Article
Publication Information: Global Change Biology; p. 87-98; 17; 1
Contract/Grant/Task Num: 32103
Financial Sponsor: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; Greenbelt, MD, United States
Rutgers - The State Univ.; Agricultural Experiment Station; New Brunswick, NJ, United States
Organization Source: NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies; New York, NY, United States
Description: 12p; In English; Original contains black and white illustrations
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: Copyright
Availability Source: Other Sources
› Back to Top
Find Similar Records
NASA Logo, External Link
NASA Official: Gerald Steeman
Site Curator: STI Program
Last Modified: September 20, 2012
Contact Us