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Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case StudyAviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.
Document ID
Document Type
Conference Paper
Shih, Ann T.
(NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, VA, United States)
Ancel, Ersin
(National Inst. of Aerospace Hampton, VA, United States)
Jones, Sharon Monica
(NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, VA, United States)
Reveley, Mary S.
(NASA Glenn Research Center Cleveland, OH, United States)
Luxhoj, James T.
(Luxhoj (James T.) Consulting United States)
Date Acquired
August 26, 2013
Publication Date
October 17, 2012
Subject Category
Air Transportation And Safety
Report/Patent Number
Meeting Information
Meeting: International Conference of the American Society for Engineering Management
Location: Virginia Beach, VA
Country: United States
Start Date: October 17, 2012
End Date: October 20, 2012
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 284848.
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