NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
Preliminary Analysis of Aircraft Loss of Control Accidents: Worst Case Precursor Combinations and Temporal SequencingAircraft loss of control (LOC) is a leading cause of fatal accidents across all transport airplane and operational classes, and can result from a wide spectrum of hazards, often occurring in combination. Technologies developed for LOC prevention and recovery must therefore be effective under a wide variety of conditions and uncertainties, including multiple hazards, and their validation must provide a means of assessing system effectiveness and coverage of these hazards. This requires the definition of a comprehensive set of LOC test scenarios based on accident and incident data as well as future risks. This paper defines a comprehensive set of accidents and incidents over a recent 15 year period, and presents preliminary analysis results to identify worst-case combinations of causal and contributing factors (i.e., accident precursors) and how they sequence in time. Such analyses can provide insight in developing effective solutions for LOC, and form the basis for developing test scenarios that can be used in evaluating them. Preliminary findings based on the results of this paper indicate that system failures or malfunctions, crew actions or inactions, vehicle impairment conditions, and vehicle upsets contributed the most to accidents and fatalities, followed by inclement weather or atmospheric disturbances and poor visibility. Follow-on research will include finalizing the analysis through a team consensus process, defining future risks, and developing a comprehensive set of test scenarios with correlation to the accidents, incidents, and future risks. Since enhanced engineering simulations are required for batch and piloted evaluations under realistic LOC precursor conditions, these test scenarios can also serve as a high-level requirement for defining the engineering simulation enhancements needed for generating them.
Document ID
Acquisition Source
Langley Research Center
Document Type
Conference Paper
Belcastro, Christine M.
(NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, VA, United States)
Groff, Loren
(National Transportation Safety Board Washington, DC, United States)
Newman, Richard L.
(Federal Aviation Administration Seattle, WA, United States)
Foster, John V.
(NASA Langley Research Center Hampton, VA, United States)
Crider, Dennis H.
(National Transportation Safety Board Washington, DC, United States)
Klyde, David H.
(Systems Technology, Inc. Hawthorne, CA, United States)
Huston, A. McCall
(Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. Cambridge, MA, United States)
Date Acquired
April 28, 2014
Publication Date
January 13, 2014
Subject Category
Air Transportation And Safety
Aircraft Stability And Control
Report/Patent Number
AIAA Paper 2014-0612
Meeting Information
Meeting: AIAA Guidance, Navigation, and Control Conference
Location: National Harbor, MD
Country: United States
Start Date: January 13, 2014
End Date: January 17, 2014
Sponsors: American Inst. of Aeronautics and Astronautics
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 284848.
Distribution Limits
Public Use Permitted.
No Preview Available