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On the Relationship Between Global Land-Ocean Temperature and Various Descriptors of Solar-Geomagnetic Activity and Climate
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Author and Affiliation:
Wilson, Robert M.(NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Huntsville, AL, United States)
Abstract: Examined are sunspot cycle- (SC-) length averages of the annual January-December values of the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index (<GLOTI>) in relation to SC-length averages of annual values of various descriptors of solar-geomagnetic activity and climate, incorporating lags of 0-5 yr. For the overall interval SC12-SC23, the <GLOTI> is inferred to correlate best against the parameter <aa(I:SSN)> incorporating lag = 5 yr, where the parameter <aa(I:SSN)> refers to the resultant aa value having removed that portion of the annual aa average value due to the yearly variation of sunspot number (SSN). The inferred correlation between the <GLOTI> and <aa(I:SSN)> is statistically important at confidence level cl > 99.9%, having a coefficient of linear correlation r = 0.865 and standard error of estimate se = 0.149 degC. Excluding the most recent cycles SC22 and SC23, the inferred correlation is stronger, having r = 0.969 and se = 0.048 degC. With respect to the overall trend in the <GLOTI>, which has been upwards towards warmer temperatures since SC12 (1878-1888), solar-geomagnetic activity parameters are now trending downwards (since SC19). For SC20-SC23, in contrast, comparison of the <GLOTI> against SC-length averages of the annual value of the Mauna Loa carbon dioxide (<MLCO2>) index is found to be highly statistically important (cl >> 99.9%), having r = 0.9994 and se = 0.012 degC for lag = 2 yr. On the basis of the inferred preferential linear correlation between the <GLOTI> and <MLCO2>, the current ongoing SC24 is inferred to have <GLOTI> warmer than was seen in SC23 (i.e., >0.526 degC), probably in excess of 0.68 degC (relative to the 1951-1980 base period).
Publication Date: Apr 01, 2014
Document ID:
20140006389
(Acquired Jun 03, 2014)
Subject Category: SOLAR PHYSICS; METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
Report/Patent Number: NASA/TP-2014-218193, M-1382
Document Type: Technical Report
Financial Sponsor: NASA Marshall Space Flight Center; Huntsville, AL, United States
Description: 62p; In English; Original contains black and white illustrations
Distribution Limits: Unclassified; Publicly available; Unlimited
Rights: No Copyright
NASA Terms: SOLAR ACTIVITY; SUNSPOT CYCLE; SUNSPOTS; OCEAN TEMPERATURE; GEOMAGNETISM; ERROR ANALYSIS; CLIMATE; CONFIDENCE LIMITS; CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS; CYCLES
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