NASA Logo

NTRS

NTRS - NASA Technical Reports Server

Back to Results
AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition TechniqueHigh speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.
Document ID
20150008891
Acquisition Source
Jet Propulsion Laboratory
Document Type
Presentation
External Source(s)
Authors
Guarnieri, Fernando L.
(Paraiba Univ. Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)
Tsurutani, Bruce T.
(Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech. Pasadena, CA, United States)
Hajra, Rajkumar
(Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)
Echer, Ezequiel
(Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)
Gonzalez, Walter D.
(Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espacias Sao Jose dos Campos, Brazil)
Mannucci, Anthony J.
(Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech. Pasadena, CA, United States)
Date Acquired
May 26, 2015
Publication Date
October 21, 2014
Subject Category
Geophysics
Solar Physics
Plasma Physics
Meeting Information
Meeting: Scientific Challenges of Thermosphere-Ionosphere Forecasting Technical Interchange Meeting
Location: Pasadena, CA
Country: United States
Start Date: October 21, 2014
End Date: October 23, 2014
Sponsors: Jet Propulsion Lab., California Inst. of Tech.
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Space weather

Available Downloads

There are no available downloads for this record.
No Preview Available