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A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 ModelsIn this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.
Document ID
20150019863
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
William K M Lau
(Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, Maryland, United States)
H T Wu
(Science Systems and Applications (United States) Lanham, Maryland, United States)
K M Kim
(Morgan State University Baltimore, Maryland, United States)
Date Acquired
October 29, 2015
Publication Date
March 30, 2013
Publication Information
Publication: Geophysical Research Letters
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Volume: 40
Issue: 12
Issue Publication Date: June 28, 2013
ISSN: 1944-8007
URL: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/grl.50420
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN26752
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG12HP08C
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Portions of document may include copyright protected material.
Keywords
CMIP5
Models
Precipitation
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