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Assessing the Evolving Fragility of the Global Food SystemThe world food crisis in 2008 highlighted the susceptibility of the global food system to price shocks. Here we use annual staple food production and trade data from 1992-2009 to analyse the changing properties of the global food system. Over the 18-year study period, we show that the global food system is relatively homogeneous (85 of countries have low or marginal food self-sufficiency) and increases in complexity, with the number of global wheat and rice trade connections doubling and trade flows increasing by 42 and 90, respectively. The increased connectivity and flows within these global trade networks suggest that the global food system is vulnerable to systemic disruptions, especially considering the tendency for exporting countries to switch to non-exporting states during times of food scarcity in the global markets. To test this hypothesis, we superimpose continental-scale disruptions on the wheat and rice trade networks. We find greater absolute reductions in global wheat and rice exports along with larger losses in network connectivity as the networks evolve due to disruptions in European wheat and Asian rice production. Importantly, our findings indicate that least developed countries suffer greater import losses in more connected networks through their increased dependence on imports for staple foods (due to these large-scale disturbances): mean (median) wheat losses as percentages of staple food supply are 8.9 (3.8) for 1992-1996, increasing to 11 (5.7) for 20052009. Over the same intervals, rice losses increase from 8.2 (2.2) to 14 (5.2). Our work indicates that policy efforts should focus on balancing the efficiency of international trade (and its associated specialization) with increased resilience of domestic production and global demand diversity.
Document ID
20150023358
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Puma, Michael Joseph
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Bose, Satyajit
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Chon, So Young
(Korea Volunteer Organization International Seoul, Korea)
Cook, Benjamin I.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
December 18, 2015
Publication Date
February 4, 2015
Publication Information
Publication: Environmental Research Letters
Publisher: IOPScience
Volume: 10
Issue: 2
Subject Category
Man/System Technology And Life Support
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN20669
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX08AJ75A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
complex networks
extremes
global food system
grain trade
famine
staple foods
trade restrictions

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