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Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat ProductionCrop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32◦ degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.
Document ID
20160005120
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Asseng, S. (Florida State Univ. System Gainesville, FL, United States)
Ewert, F. (Bonn Univ. Germany)
Martre, P. (Universite Blaise Pascal Aubiere, France)
Rötter, R. P. (MTT Agrifood Research FInalnd Helsinki, Finland)
Lobell, D. B. (Stanford Univ. Stanford, CA, United States)
Cammarano, D. (Florida State Univ. System Gainesville, FL, United States)
Kimball, B. A. (Department of Agriculture Washington, DC, United States)
Ottman, M. J. (Arizona Univ. Tucson, AZ, United States)
Wall, G. W. (Department of Agriculture Washington, DC, United States)
White, J. W. (Department of Agriculture Washington, DC, United States)
Reynolds, M. P. (CIMMYT El Batan)
Alderman, P. D. (CIMMYT El Batan)
Prasad, P. V. V. (Kansas State Univ. Manhattan, KS, United States)
Aggarwal, P. K. (International Water Management Institute New Delhi, INDIA)
Anothai, J. (Washington State Univ. Pullman, WA, United States)
Basso, B. (Michigan State Univ. East Lansing, MI, United States)
Biernath, C. (Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen Neuherberg, Germany)
Challinor, A. J. (Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
De Sanctis, G. (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Avignon, France)
Doltra, J. (Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre Muriedas, Spain)
Fereres, E. (Cordoba Univ. Cordoba, Spain)
Garcia-Vila, M. (Cordoba Univ. Cordoba, Spain)
Gayler, S. (Tuebingen Univ. Germany)
Hoogenboom, G. (Washington State Univ. Pullman, WA, United States)
Hunt, L. A. (Guelph Univ. Ontario, Canada)
Izaurralde, R. C. (Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Jabloun, M. (Aarhus Univ. Denmark)
C. D. Jones, (Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
Kersebaum, K. C. (Zentrum fuer Agrarlandschafts- und Landnutzungsforschung e.V. Muencheberg, Germany)
Koehler, A-K. (Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Müller, C. (Potsdam Univ. Potsdam, Germany)
Naresh Kumar, S. (Indian Agricultural Research Inst. New Delhi, India)
Nendel, C. (Zentrum fuer Agrarlandschafts- und Landnutzungsforschung e.V. Muencheberg, Germany)
O’Leary, G. (Department of Environment and Primary Industries Horsham, Victoria)
Olesen, J. E. (Aarhus Univ. Denmark)
Palosuo, T. (MTT Agrifood Research FInalnd Helsinki, Finland)
Priesack, E. (Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen Neuherberg, Germany)
Eyshi Rezaei, E. (Bonn Univ. Germany)
Ruane, A. C. (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY, United States)
Semenov, M. A. (Rothamsted Experimental Station Harpenden, United Kingdom)
Shcherbak, I. (Michigan State Univ. East Lansing, MI, United States)
Stöckle, C. (Washington State Univ. Pullman, WA, United States)
Stratonovitch, P. (Rothamsted Experimental Station Harpenden, United Kingdom)
Streck, T. (Hohenheim Univ. Stuttgart, Germany)
Supit, I. (Wageningen Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands)
Tao, F. (MTT Agrifood Research FInalnd Helsinki, Finland)
Thorburn, P. J. (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Dutton Park, Queensland, Australia)
Waha, K. (Potsdam Univ. Potsdam, Germany)
Wang, E. (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Canberra, Australia)
Wallach, D. (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Paris, France)
Wolf, J. (Wageningen Univ. Wageningen, Netherlands)
Zhao, Z. (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Canberra, Australia)
Zhu, Y. (Nanjing Agricultural Univ. China)
Date Acquired
April 18, 2016
Publication Date
February 1, 2015
Publication Information
Publication: Nature Climate Change
Volume: 5
ISSN: 1758-678X
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN31334
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 144598.04.01.01.17
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
agriculture
wheat
climate change
simulation
farm crops