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Aging Will Amplify the Heat-Related Mortality Risk Under a Changing Climate: Projection for the Elderly in Beijing, ChinaAn aging population could substantially enhance the burden of heat-related health risks in a warming climate because of their higher susceptibility to extreme heat health effects. Here, we project heatrelated mortality for adults 65 years and older in Beijing China across 31 downscaled climate models and 2 representative concentration pathways (RCPs) in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s. Under a scenario of medium population and RCP8.5, by the 2080s, Beijing is projected to experience 14,401 heat-related deaths per year for elderly individuals, which is a 264.9% increase compared with the 1980s. These impacts could be moderated through adaptation. In the 2080s, even with the 30% and 50% adaptation rate assumed in our study, the increase in heat-related death is approximately 7.4 times and 1.3 times larger than in the 1980s respectively under a scenario of high population and RCP8.5. These findings could assist countries in establishing public health intervention policies for the dual problems of climate change and aging population. Examples could include ensuring facilities with large elderly populations are protected from extreme heat (for example through back-up power supplies and/or passive cooling) and using databases and community networks to ensure the home-bound elderly are safe during extreme heat events.
Document ID
20160009117
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Li, Tiantian
(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing, China)
Horton, Radley M.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Bader, Daniel A.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Zhou, Maigeng
(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing, China)
Liang, Xudong
(Central Meteorological Service Beijing, China)
Ban, Jie
(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing, China)
Sun, Qinghua
(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing, China)
Kinney, Patrick L.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
July 18, 2016
Publication Date
June 20, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Scientific Report
Publisher: Macmillan Publishers Limited
Volume: 6
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN33515
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
age factor
mortality
population
health
temperature effects
risk
climate

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