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Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone IntensityRecent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.
Document ID
20160009339
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Sobel, Adam H.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Camargo, Suzana J.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Hall, Timothy M.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Lee, Chia-Ying
(International Research Inst. for Climate and Society Palisades, NY, United States)
Tippett, Michael K.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Wing, Allison A.
(Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
July 25, 2016
Publication Date
July 15, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Science
Publisher: AAAS
Volume: 353
Issue: 6296
ISSN: 0036-8075
e-ISSN: 1095-9203
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN33975
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: ONR N00014-16-1-2073
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Human influence on climate
Tropics
Cyclones

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