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Winter-to-Summer Precipitation Phasing in Southwestern North America: A Multi-Century Perspective from Paleoclimatic Model-Data ComparisonsThe phasing of winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the North American monsoon (NAM) region 2 (113.25 deg W-107.75 deg W, 30 deg N-35.25 deg N-NAM2) of southwestern North America is analyzed in fully coupled simulations of the Last Millennium and compared to tree ring reconstructed winter and summer precipitation variability. The models simulate periods with in-phase seasonal precipitation anomalies, but the strength of this relationship is variable on multidecadal time scales, behavior that is also exhibited by the reconstructions. The models, however, are unable to simulate periods with consistently out-of-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies as observed in the latter part of the instrumental interval. The periods with predominantly in-phase winter-to-summer precipitation anomalies in the models are significant against randomness, and while this result is suggestive of a potential for dual-season drought on interannual and longer time scales, models do not consistently exhibit the persistent dual-season drought seen in the dendroclimatic reconstructions. These collective findings indicate that model-derived drought risk assessments may underestimate the potential for dual-season drought in 21st century projections of hydroclimate in the American Southwest and parts of Mexico.
Document ID
20160010511
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Coats, Sloan (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Smerdon, Jason E. (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Seager, Richard (Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Palisades, NY, United States)
Griffin, Daniel (Minnesota Univ. Minneapolis, MN, United States)
Cook, Benjamin I. (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Date Acquired
August 23, 2016
Publication Date
August 19, 2015
Publication Information
Publication: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres
Volume: 120
Issue: 16
ISSN: 2169-897X
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN30565
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 281945.02.04.02.74
CONTRACT_GRANT: NOAA NA1 1OAR4310166
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF AGS-1243204
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Variability
Anomalies
Drought