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Regional and Global Climate Response to Anthropogenic SO2 Emissions from China in Three Climate ModelsWe use the HadGEM3-GA4, CESM1, and GISS ModelE2 climate models to investigate the global and regional aerosol burden, radiative flux, and surface temperature responses to removing anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions from China. We find that the models differ by up to a factor of 6 in the simulated change in aerosol optical depth (AOD) and shortwave radiative flux over China that results from reduced sulfate aerosol, leading to a large range of magnitudes in the regional and global temperature responses. Two of the three models simulate a near-ubiquitous hemispheric warming due to the regional SO2 removal, with similarities in the local and remote pattern of response, but overall with a substantially different magnitude. The third model simulates almost no significant temperature response. We attribute the discrepancies in the response to a combination of substantial differences in the chemical conversion of SO2 to sulfate, translation of sulfate mass into AOD, cloud radiative interactions, and differences in the radiative forcing efficiency of sulfate aerosol in the models. The model with the strongest response (HadGEM3-GA4) compares best with observations of AOD regionally, however the other two models compare similarly (albeit poorly) and still disagree substantially in their simulated climate response, indicating that total AOD observations are far from sufficient to determine which model response is more plausible. Our results highlight that there remains a large uncertainty in the representation of both aerosol chemistry as well as direct and indirect aerosol radiative effects in current climate models, and reinforces that caution must be applied when interpreting the results of modelling studies of aerosol influences on climate. Model studies that implicate aerosols in climate responses should ideally explore a range of radiative forcing strengths representative of this uncertainty, in addition to thoroughly evaluating the models used against observations.
Document ID
20160011155
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Kasoar, M. (Imperial Coll. of London London, United Kingdom)
Voulgarakis, Apostolos (Science Collaborator)
Lamarque, Jean-Francois (National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Shindell, Drew T. (Duke Univ. Durham, NC, United States)
Bellouin, Nicholas (Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Collins, William J. (Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Faluvegi, Greg (Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Tsigaridis, Kostas (Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
September 9, 2016
Publication Date
August 4, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume: 16
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN35151
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NE/K500872/1
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
radiance
radiative forcing
climate models
sulfur dioxides
climate
China
surface temperature
aerosol
sulfates