The Impact of New Trends in Satellite Launches on the Orbital Debris Environment

The main goal of this study is to examine the impact of new trends in satellite launch activities on the orbital debris environment and collision risk. As a foundation for the study, we developed a deployment scenario for satellites and associated rocket bodies based on publicly announced future missions. The upcoming orbital injection technologies, such as the new launch vehicles dedicated for small spacecraft and propulsive interstages, are also considered in this scenario. We then used a simulation tool developed in-house to propagate the objects within this scenario using variable-sized time-steps as small as one second to detect conjunctions between objects. The simulation makes it possible to follow the short- and long-term effects of a particular satellite or constellation in the space environment. Likewise, the effects of changes in the debris environment on a particular satellite or constellation can be evaluated. It is our hope that the results of this paper and further utilization of the developed simulation tool will assist in the investigation of more accurate deorbiting metrics to replace the generic 25-year disposal guidelines, as well as to guide future launches toward more sustainable and safe orbits.