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Reserves and Trade Jointly Determine Exposure to Food Supply ShocksWhile a growing proportion of global food consumption is obtained through international trade, there is an ongoing debate on whether this increased reliance on trade benefits or hinders food security, and specifically, the ability of global food systems to absorb shocks due to local or regional losses of production. This paper introduces a model that simulates the short-term response to a food supply shock originating in a single country, which is partly absorbed through decreases in domestic reserves and consumption, and partly transmitted through the adjustment of trade flows. By applying the model to publicly-available data for the cereals commodity group over a 17 year period, we find that differential outcomes of supply shocks simulated through this time period are driven not only by the intensification of trade, but as importantly by changes in the distribution of reserves. Our analysis also identifies countries where trade dependency may accentuate the risk of food shortages from foreign production shocks; such risk could be reduced by increasing domestic reserves or importing food from a diversity of suppliers that possess their own reserves. This simulation-based model provides a framework to study the short-term, nonlinear and out-of-equilibrium response of trade networks to supply shocks, and could be applied to specific scenarios of environmental or economic perturbations.
Document ID
20160011515
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Marchand, Philippe (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) Annapolis, MD, United States)
Carr, Joel A. (Virginia Univ. Charlottesville, VA, United States)
Dell'Angelo, Jampel (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) Annapolis, MD, United States)
Fader, Marianela (International Centre for Water Resources and Global Change (UNESCO) Koblenz, Germany)
Gephart, Jessica A. (Virginia Univ. Charlottesville, VA, United States)
Kummu, Matti (Aalto Univ Aalto, Finland)
Magliocca, Nicholas (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) Annapolis, MD, United States)
Porkka, Miina (National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center (SESYNC) Annapolis, MD, United States)
Puma, Michael J. (Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Zak, Ratajczak (Virginia Univ. Charlottesville, VA, United States)
Date Acquired
September 27, 2016
Publication Date
September 14, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Environmental Research Letters
Volume: 11
Issue: 9
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN35834
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF DBI-1402033
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF DBI-1052875
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX08AJ75A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
supply
supply shocks
food shortages
domestic reserves
food
food systems
security
trade