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Uncertainty of Wheat Water Use: Simulated Patterns and Sensitivity to Temperature and CO2Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (Teff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50 of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.
Document ID
20160012358
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Cammarano, Davide (Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Roetter, Reimund P. (Natural Resources Institute Finland Helsinki, Finland)
Asseng, Senthold (Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Ewert, Frank (Bonn Univ. Germany)
Wallach, Daniel (French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) Paris, France)
Martre, Pierre (French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) Paris, France)
Hatfield, Jerry L. (Agricultural Research Service Ames, IA, United States)
Jones, James W. (Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Rosenzweig, Cynthia E. (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Ruane, Alex C. (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Boote, Kenneth J. (Florida Univ. Gainesville, FL, United States)
Thorburn, Peter J. (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Dutton Park, Queensland, Australia)
Kersebaum, Kurt Christian (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization Dutton Park, Queensland, Australia)
Aggarwal, Pramod K. (International Water Management Institute New Delhi, INDIA)
Angulo, Carlos (Bonn Univ. Germany)
Basso, Bruno (Michigan State Univ. East Lansing, MI, United States)
Bertuzzi, Patrick (French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA) Paris, France)
Biernath, Christian (Helmholtz Zentrum Munchen Neuherberg, Germany)
Brisson, Nadine (Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique Thiverval-Grignon, France)
Challinor, Andrew J. (Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Doltra, Jordi (Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre Muriedas, Spain)
Gayler, Sebastian (Tuebingen Univ. Germany)
Goldberg, Richie (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Heng, Lee (International Atomic Energy Agency Vienna, Austria)
Steduto, Pasquale (NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Date Acquired
October 17, 2016
Publication Date
August 31, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Field Crops Research
Volume: 198
ISSN: 0378-4290
Subject Category
Meteorology and Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN36208
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Sensitivity
Transpiration efficiency
Uncertainty
Multi-model simulation
Water use