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Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl DroughtDrought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.
Document ID
20170000345
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Glotter, Michael
(Chicago Univ. Chicago, IL, United States)
Elliott, Joshua
(Chicago Univ. Chicago, IL, United States)
Date Acquired
January 11, 2017
Publication Date
December 12, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Nature: Plants
Publisher: Macmillan Publishers
Volume: 3
Issue: 16193
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN38355
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
climate change impacts
rainfall deficit
high temperature
drughts
precipitation
agriculture

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