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Climate and Health Impacts of US Emissions Reductions Consistent with 2 CAn emissions trajectory for the US consistent with 2 C warming would require marked societal changes, making it crucial to understand the associated benefits. Previous studies have examined technological potentials and implementation costs and public health benefits have been quantified for less-aggressive potential emissions-reduction policies, but researchers have not yet fully explored the multiple benefits of reductions consistent with 2 C. We examine the impacts of such highly ambitious scenarios for clean energy and vehicles. US transportation emissions reductions avoid approx.0.03 C global warming in 2030 (0.15 C in 2100), whereas energy emissions reductions avoid approx.0.05-0.07 C 2030 warming (approx.0.25 C in 2100). Nationally, however, clean energy policies produce climate disbenefits including warmer summers (although these would be eliminated by the remote effects of similar policies if they were undertaken elsewhere). The policies also greatly reduce damaging ambient particulate matter and ozone. By 2030, clean energy policies could prevent approx.175,000 premature deaths, with approx.22,000 (11,000-96,000; 95% confidence) fewer annually thereafter, whereas clean transportation could prevent approx.120,000 premature deaths and approx.14,000 (9,000-52,000) annually thereafter. Near-term national benefits are valued at approx.US$250 billion (140 billion to 1,050billion) per year, which is likely to exceed implementation costs. Including longer-term, worldwide climate impacts, benefits roughly quintuple, becoming approx.5-10 times larger than estimated implementation costs. Achieving the benefits, however, would require both larger and broader emissions reductions than those in current legislation or regulations.
Document ID
20170001780
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Shindell, Drew T.
(Duke Univ. Durham, NC, United States)
Lee, Yunha
(Duke Univ. Durham, NC, United States)
Faluvegi, Greg
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
February 27, 2017
Publication Date
February 22, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Nature Climate Change
Publisher: Macmillan Publishers
Volume: 6
e-ISSN: 1758-6798
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN30295
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
policies
climate
transportation
energy policy
clean energy
costs
trajectories

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