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Multi-Model Simulations of Aerosol and Ozone Radiative Forcing Due to Anthropogenic Emission Changes During the Period 1990-2015Over the past few decades, the geographical distribution of emissions of substances that alter the atmospheric energy balance has changed due to economic growth and air pollution regulations. Here, we show the resulting changes to aerosol and ozone abundances and their radiative forcing using recently updated emission data for the period 1990-2015, as simulated by seven global atmospheric composition models. The models broadly reproduce large-scale changes in surface aerosol and ozone based on observations (e.g. 1 to 3 percent per year in aerosols over the USA and Europe). The global mean radiative forcing due to ozone and aerosol changes over the 1990-2015 period increased by 0.17 plus or minus 0.08 watts per square meter, with approximately one-third due to ozone. This increase is more strongly positive than that reported in IPCC AR5 (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report). The main reasons for the increased positive radiative forcing of aerosols over this period are the substantial reduction of global mean SO2 emissions, which is stronger in the new emission inventory compared to that used in the IPCC analysis, and higher black carbon emissions.
Document ID
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Myhre, Gunnar
(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway)
Aas, Wenche
(Norwegian Inst. for Air Research Kjeller, Norway)
Ribu, Cherian
(Leipzig Univ. Germany)
Collins, William
(Reading Univ. United Kingdom)
Faluvegi, Gregory S.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Flanner, Mark
(Michigan Univ. Ann Arbor, MI, United States)
Forster, Piers
(Leeds Univ. United Kingdom)
Hodnebrog, Oivind
(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway)
Klimont, Zbigniew
(International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria)
Lund, Marianne T.
(Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo, Norway)
Date Acquired
March 7, 2017
Publication Date
February 22, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Volume: 17
Issue: 4
Subject Category
Environment Pollution
Report/Patent Number
Funding Number(s)
Distribution Limits
radiative forcing
global atmospheric composition models

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