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Impact of Climate Change on Heat-Related Mortality in Jiangsu Province, ChinaA warming climate is anticipated to increase the future heat-related total mortality in urban areas. However, little evidence has been reported for cause-specific mortality or nonurban areas. Here we assessed the impact of climate change on heat-related total and cause-specific mortality in both urban and rural counties of Jiangsu Province, China, in the next five decades. To address the potential uncertainty in projecting future heat-related mortality, we applied localized urban- and nonurban-specific exposure response functions, six population projections including a no population change scenario and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and 42 temperature projections from 21 global-scale general circulation models and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Results showed that projected warmer temperatures in 2016-2040 and 2041-2065 will lead to higher heat-related mortality for total non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory, stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD), and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) causes occurring annually during May to September in Jiangsu Province, China. Nonurban residents in Jiangsu will suffer from more excess heat-related cause-specific mortality in 2016-2065 than urban residents. Variations across climate models and RCPs dominated the uncertainty of heat-related mortality estimation whereas population size change only had limited influence. Our findings suggest that targeted climate change mitigation and adaptation measures should be taken in both urban and nonurban areas of Jiangsu Province. Specific public health interventions should be focused on the leading causes of death (stroke, IHD, and COPD), whose health burden will be amplified by a warming climate.
Document ID
20170002243
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Chen, Kai
(Nanjing Univ. China)
Horton, Radley M.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Bader, Daniel A.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Lesk, Corey
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Jiang, Leiwen
(Shanghai Univ. Shanghai, China)
Jones, Bryan
(Bernard Baruch Coll. New York, NY, United States)
Zhou, Lian
(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing, China)
Chen, Xiaodong
(Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing, China)
Bi, Jun
(Nanjing Univ. China)
Kinney, Patrick L.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
March 14, 2017
Publication Date
February 22, 2017
Publication Information
ISSN: 0269-7491
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Computer Programming And Software
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN39715
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: ES009089
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNX14AB99A
CONTRACT_GRANT: CNNSF 71433007
CONTRACT_GRANT: CNKR&DP 2016YFC0207600
CONTRACT_GRANT: T32ES023770
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
projection
mortality
heat
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