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Selection of a Representative Subset of Global Climate Models that Captures the Profile of Regional Changes for Integrated Climate Impacts AssessmentWe present the Representative Temperature and Precipitation (T&P) GCM Subsetting Approach developed within the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to select a practical subset of global climate models (GCMs) for regional integrated assessment of climate impacts when resource limitations do not permit the full ensemble of GCMs to be evaluated given the need to also focus on impacts sector and economics models. Subsetting inherently leads to a loss of information but can free up resources to explore important uncertainties in the integrated assessment that would otherwise be prohibitive. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach identifies five individual GCMs that capture a profile of the full ensemble of temperature and precipitation change within the growing season while maintaining information about the probability that basic classes of climate changes (relatively cool/wet, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and hot/dry) are projected in the full GCM ensemble. We demonstrate the selection methodology for maize impacts in Ames, Iowa, and discuss limitations and situations when additional information may be required to select representative GCMs. We then classify 29 GCMs over all land areas to identify regions and seasons with characteristic diagonal skewness related to surface moisture as well as extreme skewness connected to snow-albedo feedbacks and GCM uncertainty. Finally, we employ this basic approach to recognize that GCM projections demonstrate coherence across space, time, and greenhouse gas concentration pathway. The Representative T&P GCM Subsetting Approach provides a quantitative basis for the determination of useful GCM subsets, provides a practical and coherent approach where previous assessments selected solely on availability of scenarios, and may be extended for application to a range of scales and sectoral impacts.
Document ID
20170002520
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
Authors
Ruane, Alex C.
(NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies New York, NY United States)
Mcdermid, Sonali P.
(Columbia Univ. New York, NY, United States)
Date Acquired
March 23, 2017
Publication Date
March 4, 2017
Publication Information
Publication: Earth Perspectives
Publisher: Springer
Volume: 4
Issue: 1
ISSN: 2194-6434
e-ISSN: 2194-6434
Subject Category
Meteorology And Climatology
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN39991
Funding Number(s)
WBS: WBS 509496.02.08.04.24
WBS: WBS 281945.02.03.03.96
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other
Keywords
Climate Change; GCMs; Climate Model Subset; Representative T&P GCM Subset
Approach; Climate Impacts; AgMIP; Integrated Assessment

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