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Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling CenterThe prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.
Document ID
20170002789
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Jian, L. K.
(Maryland Univ. College Park, MD, United States)
MacNeice, P. J.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Mays, M. L.
(Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Taktakishvili, A.
(Catholic Univ. of America Washington, DC, United States)
Odstrcil, D.
(George Mason Univ. Fairfax, VA, United States)
Jackson, B.
(California Univ., San Diego La Jolla, CA, United States)
Yu, H.-S.
(California Univ., San Diego La Jolla, CA, United States)
Riley, P.
(Predictive Science, Inc. San Diego, CA, United States)
Sokolov, I. V.
(Michigan Univ. Ann Arbor, MI, United States)
Date Acquired
March 31, 2017
Publication Date
August 23, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Space Weather
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Volume: 14
Issue: 8
ISSN: 1539-4956
e-ISSN: 1542-7390
Subject Category
Solar Physics
Space Sciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN40912
Funding Number(s)
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF AGS 1257519
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF AGS 1242798
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11PL02A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF AGS 1259549
CONTRACT_GRANT: NNG11PL10A
CONTRACT_GRANT: NSF AGS 1321493
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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