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Community-Wide Validation of Geospace Model Local K-Index Predictions to Support Model Transition to OperationsWe present the latest result of a community-wide space weather model validation effort coordinated among the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), model developers, and the broader science community. Validation of geospace models is a critical activity for both building confidence in the science results produced by the models and in assessing the suitability of the models for transition to operations. Indeed, a primary motivation of this work is supporting NOAA/SWPCs effort to select a model or models to be transitioned into operations. Our validation efforts focus on the ability of the models to reproduce a regional index of geomagnetic disturbance, the local K-index. Our analysis includes six events representing a range of geomagnetic activity conditions and six geomagnetic observatories representing midlatitude and high-latitude locations. Contingency tables, skill scores, and distribution metrics are used for the quantitative analysis of model performance. We consider model performance on an event-by-event basis, aggregated over events, at specific station locations, and separated into high-latitude and midlatitude domains. A summary of results is presented in this report, and an online tool for detailed analysis is available at the CCMC.
Document ID
20170003055
Acquisition Source
Goddard Space Flight Center
Document Type
Reprint (Version printed in journal)
External Source(s)
Authors
Glocer, A.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Rastaetter, L.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Kuznetsova, M.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Pulkkinen, A.
(NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Greenbelt, MD United States)
Singer, H. J.
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Balch, C.
(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Boulder, CO, United States)
Weimer, D.
(Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. Blacksburg, VA, United States)
Welling, D.
(Michigan Univ. Ann Arbor, MI, United States)
Wiltberger, M.
(National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder, CO, United States)
Raeder, J.
(New Hampshire Univ. Durham, NH, United States)
Weigel, R. S.
(George Mason Univ. Fairfax, VA, United States)
McCollough, J.
(Air Force Research Lab. Kirtland AFB, NM, United States)
Wing, S.
(Johns Hopkins Univ. Laurel, MD, United States)
Date Acquired
April 6, 2017
Publication Date
July 9, 2016
Publication Information
Publication: Space Weather
Publisher: American Geophysical Union
Volume: 14
Issue: 7
ISSN: 1542-7390
e-ISSN: 1542-7390
Subject Category
Space Sciences (General)
Report/Patent Number
GSFC-E-DAA-TN40879
Distribution Limits
Public
Copyright
Other

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